Some Miners' 2025 Copper Production Guidance Released; Copper Concentrates Supply-Demand Balance Gap Expected to Widen Further [SMM Analysis]

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       The year 2024 has passed, and major miners have successively released their Q4 2024 copper production reports and 2025 copper production guidance. However, it is worth noting that multiple miners have lowered their 2025 copper production targets, indicating a more severe supply situation for copper concentrates in 2025, with a larger gap in the global copper concentrate supply-demand balance.

       Freeport: The planned copper sales volume for 2025 depends on the operational conditions of the miner. After the full completion of the Manyar smelter under PT-FI, the Indonesian authorities are expected to approve copper concentrate exports. Meanwhile, copper sales plans are also related to weather conditions. According to the force majeure clauses in its Special Mining Business License (IUPK), PT-FI has requested approval from the Indonesian government to export copper concentrates in 2025. Based on discussions with the Indonesian government so far, PT-FI expects to resume copper concentrate exports in Q1 2025 and will be required to pay a 7.5% export tax on copper concentrate exports in 2025. (Here, we use the planned copper sales volume disclosed in the quarterly report to replace the planned production volume, and further updates will be made as more information is disclosed.)

       Anglo American: The production of most plants in Chile in 2025 is affected by lower grades, such as the maintenance at the Los Bronces beneficiation plant and the impact of freshwater resources in Chile. Additionally, the grade at the Collahuasi copper mine decreased in H1 this year. By 2027, the improved grade at Los Bronces and higher processing volumes at the Collahuasi flotation plant in Chile will benefit production, but planned maintenance of ball mills and conveyors will slightly reduce production in Peru. The improved grade at the Collahuasi copper mine in Chile and increased processing volumes at the Peruvian plant will benefit production.

       First Quantum: The Kansanshi smelter is scheduled for a six-week maintenance period in Q2 2025. The copper grade at Trident/Sentinel is declining, but processing volumes are being increased, including optimizing blasting, crushing, grinding rates, and flotation recovery rates, replacing the No. 2 crusher in the pit, and installing an innovative rail-mounted conveyor. A major overhaul of the rope shovel and trolley-assist network is planned for Q2 2025. The final hearing for the Cobre Panama International Chamber of Commerce proceedings has been rescheduled to 2026.

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